State Department sources shadow banking regulatory developments: the establishment of mechanisms for

"We must through bankruptcy liquidation , grab some typical cases to do something , to set up this mechanism ." February 25 , a research institute affiliated with State Department official responsible person , said in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald reporter .

      This mechanism means that the financial sector risk warning mechanism when it comes to the current shadow banking regulatory issues , the person on the domestic capital market, investment and financing mismatch quite concerned that currently only total control by the central bank's monetary policy , difficult to resolve the current financing market liquidity efficiency.

      This logic may be gradually deepened in 2014 among the policy side . In the near future , the real estate market changes in wind direction , or exacerbate capital investment and financing market next payment pressures.

      One of the main areas in the trust industry, for example , since the end of 2013 , including Jilin Trust , the Trustee and other merchandise products appear to honor the trust crisis ; changing the "rigid honor " emotional stress , have already begun to trust in regulators and inside spread.

      At the same time , including Internet banking , P2P, information management and brokerage , fund subsidiaries and PE , are called coerced huge amounts of money involved in the main channel of venture capital , investment patterns of convergence in the " convention proceeds" conservative capital preservation . Although the financing body in different ways, but did not form an effective interest rate transmission mechanism , funding mismatch increasingly become more severe .

      The previous projects have passed the crisis of financial institutions " by the new- old" then set side repressed or introducing risk incident, or fetal risk warning mechanism meant liquidation event will be released . Currently the focus of attention of the entire investment and financing market , no doubt who will tear down the first domino .

The first domino

      Recently, the Trust Industry Association released the latest data show that the end of 2013 , the total asset size of the trust industry official stand on the 10 trillion yuan mark, reached 10.91 trillion yuan . Compared with 7.47 trillion yuan at the end of 2012 , an increase of 46%. 4.8 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2011 , and an increase of 211% .

      Prior industry generally predict the trust industry in the station 10 trillion mark eve encounter industry inflection point . However, from the data, although the growth rate slowed down compared to the 55.27 percent compared to 2012 , but the growth rate of the industry is still in the lead of major financial segments .

      What, then , CCT last minute saved the day , Jilin Trust event continues to upgrade the industry as to whether the next step would be to break the trust industry "rigid honor " concerns surge.

      Where the incident originated one billion yuan Jilin Trust funds " Yoshinobu - Cifo Yu Shan Songhua 77 energy projects usufruct Capital Trust scheme ," its first five expired Feb. 19 , but actually the trust financiers Shanxi Liansheng Group debt, funds can not say about payment , together with the previous default four products , investors did not get five principal and interest .

      In the previous January , CCT rigid 3 billion yuan cash crisis of trust products , just to secure the whereabouts of the three institutions under the curtain .

      These two cases since the end of 2013 to become the market for concentrated burst point of honor to break the rigidity of concern . In addition to market factors , including regulators and trust themselves, to break the rigid honor apparently there is another consideration criteria.

      Recently, the State Department official research institutions above the responsible person in an interview admitted that in recent years , some bad projects , as well as low levels of funding difficulties of enterprises in great demand . If there is no risk of revealing , leading to more problems and more enterprises , the capital of rigid demand, the higher the risk of principal , if not the principal risk control, risk capital requirements will rapidly expand, squeezing the risk of other funds.

      At the same time , this problem can not be solved only by the central bank to adjust the total amount of the policy , led to the current high level of capital flows and steady growth target a certain contradiction.

     "Liquidity is reasonable , it should take into account the actual needs of all funds , to ensure that the real economy is not particularly short of money ." February 27 , a Beijing brokerage research who hold similar views when interviewed .

      State Department official research institutions in accordance with the relevant responsible person said, the future of high-level through a typical case of intentional bankruptcy liquidation , build risk warning mechanism to guide low-risk investment funds away from high-risk areas . Meanwhile, in order to build with the risk warning mechanism , will be supporting the launch of a series of supporting systems . This may mean that the trust industry could break the cycle of rigid honor essay in the future.

      CCT while introducing similar third-party disk access mode projects , solve payment crisis erupted trust , or trust company through its own funds , or the establishment of a new trust scheme disk access program mode, you will not be encouraged in the policy side .

      Trust this industry with another logic , a Beijing trust management who when interviewed admitted that the current problem is that no one wants to be the first to break the rigid cashing companies, trust companies to break the rigidity of the future payment means operations may run into trouble , but after the first domino falls , a chain reaction could lead to the development of an industry downturn .

     Nevertheless, in the high-level government thinking , risk events of individual projects, or become a market capitalization of correcting the current mismatch between investment and financing suboptimal choice.

Capital risk considerations behind the events

      Another background risk warning mechanism introduced that China Credit Trust and Jilin Trust events in recent years have been non- trust cases .

     21st Century Business Herald reporter statistics, recent two years , the entire risk of the event broke the trust industry from about 20 or so, including in financial trusts, Anxin Trust [ -0.57 % funding research report] and cashing incident appeared to reach three Jilin Trust , Credit Trust and CITIC Trust also reached two cases , in addition, Sichuan Trust , Minmetals Trust , Epoch Trust , Fortune Trust and Shaanxi International Trust and other risk events have also had burst .

      The background is that in recent years a large number of channels through trust funds flock to local financing platforms and real estate fields. Because trust is the term of two years , and that there is a time mismatch investment projects , financing party by "borrowing refinance old debt " model maintains cash flow. In recent years, high prices, and high prices supported by the huge land premium support this chain stability.

      In addition to a mismatch in time outside , with the risk of wrong trust industry is also of concern . Trust income stabilization mode convention to cover up the risk factor behind the project, high-risk projects are often willing to pay higher financing rates , making impulsive capital flows increased high-risk projects .

      At the same time , the real estate market wind shift , or exacerbate the conflict.

      On the one hand Industrial Bank [ -0.55 % funding research report] halt mezzanine financing , which means the real estate trust bank Societe Generale rely Channel products under attack, on the other hand , once this sentiment spread in the banking sector , will affect the financing side by new-old pattern of the real estate trust for the duration of the project cashing bring some pressure .

      A few days ago , a listed developer Beijing executives to accept the 21st Century Business Herald reporter interviewed admitted that some local prices inflection point signs , the impact may be greater. This means that prices pulled by land premium , as well as relying on real estate and land as the main mode of collateral may be the first time in recent years the test.