Secret central bank loans to invest in the report: real estate to GDP out of the bottom

Before the central bank did not publish a quarterly financial institutions loans to invest in the statistical report, all sectors of the economy, the positive changes in the financial data to prove that China's economic growth has bottomed out. But in the wake of the statistical report, from all walks of life is suddenly enlighted, the original Chinese economy positive signal can be real estate and hang swallow the bait, in other words, the real estate to GDP growth out of the bottom. Here we analyze these real estate data.

New loans in the first quarter of this year, the size of more than one billion yuan, an increase of 930 billion 100 million yuan. Household sector loans increased by yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 147 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by.

The central bank released a quarter of financial institutions to invest in loans to the statistical report reveals the whereabouts of new long-term loans to households. The report shows that a quarter of personal housing loans increased by 1 trillion yuan (accounting for 22% of total new loans over the same period), an increase of 430 billion 900 million yuan over the same period.

This group of data shows that in the first quarter of the new medium and long term loans are almost a personal purchase loans. And in 2015 the whole year, the new individual housing loans amounted to only one million yuan.

Central bank survey and Statistics Department Secretary Sheng Songcheng said that the growth rate of personal mortgage loans since last May continued to rise, to promote the real estate market sales, the real estate market to stock up.

Since the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year, a series of the property market to the beginning of the inventory policy debut, lowering standards, cut interest rates, down payment, cut a series of shots. In the role of the policy mix boxing, since the beginning of this year, the first tier cities and three or four lines of differentiation of urban property market more and more serious, the former began to volume and price Qi Sheng, and then remains tepid, local governments can only continue to searched to the inventory policy.

As we all know, the pressure on the property market to the three or four tier cities, the first tier cities inventory is not large and demand. Thus, the first tier cities in the purchase of the policy to strengthen the introduction of differentiated policies to cool the property market.

But the impact of policy portfolio on the real estate market has been revealed. As of the end of March, 5.22 trillion yuan real estate development loans, an increase of 13%, growth 4.9 percentage point lower than the previous year. Among them, to protect the development of housing loans of 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 45.4%, increasing ratio at the end of last year low of 14.1 percent; real estate development loans 1.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.8%, increasing ratio last year at the end of 10 percentage points higher.

Sheng Songcheng believes that the growth rate of real estate development loans rose, indicating that the real estate development investment has warmed.

The data released by the National Bureau of statistics also provided evidence of this judgment. Data released by the Bureau show that the first 3 months of this year, the national real estate development investment grew by 6.2%, the growth rate increased 3 percentage points compared to the first 2 months.

The rapid growth of real estate development loans and real estate development loan balance of the storm surge, the real estate investment has been effectively started. As Chinese economy important basic industries, the real estate investment started effectively is to ensure the realization of the economy, one of the important starting point for the steady growth of. But the management does not want to re emergence of real estate overheating situation, which means that the follow-up to continue to consolidate, fine adjustment to the basis of pre inventory policy, will be more emphasis on the city".

Data from the central bank to see, real estate investment began to pick up, a substantial increase in personal loans, these two indicators reflect the national real estate market began to come out of the low. And from the real estate loan balance of the growth rate, the decision is real estate (at least one of the absolute main) GDP growth is also acceptable to pull out the bottom. From another perspective, if there is no real estate to pick up the support, the first quarter of this year, GDP growth will reach 6.7%?