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Britain off Europe is a foregone conclusion, the pound fell to 30 year low

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2018/4/24 Viewed：

Beijing time on Friday (June 24th), the European referendum results are being released, the final outcome will determine whether the UK to stay in the eu. Currently the latest data: the return of the European camp has won more than enough votes, enough to ensure victory in the referendum! Initially the market is optimistic that the outcome of the British vote will continue to stay in the eu. But with the preliminary results show back Optima prevail. As Beijing 11:49, 382 votes in Britain has 315 District Statistics, Europe 12635440 (48.3%), 13524404 (51.7%) from europe. British Sky News, BBC and the guardian and other media have reported that the British de Europe is a foregone conclusion. Friday pounds (1.3918, -0.1088, -7.25% against dollar tumbled 10%, a record low of 1985; yen against the dollar once broken up 100 mark, and the dollar index (95.0857, 2.0063, 2.16%) also rose 3.5%, Nikkei expand decline to 8.06%. Spot gold after the break before the high $1315 to rose to expand, and eventually refresh an ounce 1358.33 $more than two-year high, overall rose more than $100; Sterling denominated spot price of gold rose to hit in 2013 since April the highest; in euros (1.1164, -0.0260, -2.28% denominated spot price of gold rose nearly 7 percent, to an ounce 1176.99 dollars.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.89 points, fell 0.27%, to 17780.83; Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 3.45 points, fell 0.17%, to 2085.45. The Nasdaq composite index fell 10.44 points, fell 0.22 percent, to 4833.32 point. British rich time 100 index rose 0.56%, or 6261.19 points. CAC 40 index rose 0.29%, to close at 4380.03 points. Germany's DAX index rose 0.55% to close at 10071.06 points. Economic data, National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Wednesday (June 22) released data show, the NAR may seasonally adjusted into home sales increased the rate of 1.8%, the estimated increased 1.8 percent to an annual rate of 5.53 million households, estimated at 555 million. While the United States in April, seasonally adjusted NAR home sales rate confirmation for the growth of 1.3%, annual rate of 5 million 430 thousand.

European time, data, investors focus on the euro zone inflation data, the data will have a greater impact on the short-term trend of euro, also should pay attention to the European Central Bank announced a economic bulletin, investors can find more clues to the European Central Bank policy from the communique. In addition, the UK's retail sales data, investors should pay attention to. Thereafter, Beijing time at 19:00, focus of investor attention the Bank of England's latest interest rate decision and minutes of meetings, to vote for the British under the Duke of Zhou in the former European time, will the eurozone announced a series of manufacturing PMI data, the data will be on the market constitute transient effects. In addition, the market is the attention of the United Kingdom held a referendum to take off the European referendum, investors concerned about the impact of the referendum on the export polls and other recent news to the market. Time in New York, the United States will published a series of important data, investors focused on early please unemployment data of gold, the conference board leading indicator and new home sales three data performance, believe that these data will have a short-term impact on the market. Members of the Bank of England is bound to be very cautious, may make some loose promises. New York period, the market ushered in a series of U.S. economic data test. U.S. inflation data is more important, the data will give the direction of the market trend in New York time to bring guidelines.

European session, the German June IFO business climate index. New York period, the market ushered in the United States a series of data test, including durable goods orders, Michigan consumer confidence index and leading indicators, are likely to bring some short-term trend in the market guidelines.

Economic Calendar

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16:00 Germany June IFO business climate index

16:40 UK May BBA house purchase mortgage licensing (10000 pieces)

20:30 United States May durable goods orders initial value (%)

22:00 U.S. June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

Major currency reminder

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The euro against the U.S. dollar EURUSD

Today Asia market, the euro against the U.S. dollar fell to a low of 1.0930 after a rebound. Currently running in the vicinity of 1.1020. A British exit the positive results of the Swiss Franc (0.9734, 0.0101, 1.05%), the yen and gold hedging products. The recent need to focus on the European Central Bank's decision to redefine the euro and the euro currency policy to stabilize the exchange rate. And other EU countries will follow the British launch of a similar de European referendum will have a huge impact on the trend of the euro. Day: EUR / USD: down trend. Technical review: RSI technical indicators fell below its 30 location. Above the pressure 1.1400-1.1240, below the support 1.0900-1.0720.

GBP / USD GBPUSD

Friday (June 24), the British "off the European referendum vote counting is nearing completion, the counting results showed Britain from the European Union is a foregone conclusion, the pound against the dollar suffered pressurizing and period exchange rate hit a low of more than 30 years 1.3228. Previously, with the advance of the tellers process, more and more of the constituency results show that off Europe sent more than to stay in Europe sent: This weighed heavily on the investor sentiment. Therefore, the pound in intraday fell once fell to 1.40 mark, compared to the previous 1.50 high fell full 1000 points, so huge foreign exchange market volatility last in 2015 in January during "the Swiss Franc storm" to see. And after the election results and the emergence of the dramatic changes, Glasgow, Scotland's largest city and the famous British university city of Oxford billing the one-sided tendency "to stay in Europe, to leave Europe votes counter ultra, promote this news, sterling exchange rate Jedi, rose 1.45 to line. Day: the pound / dollar down trend. Technical review: RSI technical indicators fell below its 30 location. Above the pressure 1.4600-1.4000, below the support 1.3000-1.2400.

USD / JPY (102.91, -3.6800, -3.45%) USDJPY

Friday (June 24), the U.S. dollar against the yen even broken a number of key support integer, the day, the biggest decline in currently has more than 4.3%, the lowest hit 98.99, the fall of 99 recorded the lowest value since November 2013. The appreciation of the yen speed rocket shot up, the market generally expected the Bank of Japan will intervene. Day: USD / JPY day: down trend. Technical review: RSI technical indicators show continued downward trend. Above the pressure 106.15-103.65, below the support 100.00-98.00.

Australian dollars (0.7400, -0.0226, -2.96%) against the U.S. dollar AUDUSD

Aud against the dollar on Friday (June 24) Asian city in early trading fell 4 percent, from near the previous high point 0.7640 mark fell to 0.7320. This sharp drop is because of the money market of Britain off the European referendum results temporarily tendency to break away from the direct reaction. The results show that the billing "from Europe", accidentally come true, global uproar. In more than half of the referendum ballot billing, off the European camp has accumulated a solid advantage of the much 55-60 million votes, "Europe" situation is grim, so the market risk aversion all-round upsurge, currency risk significantly under pressure. In the days of the sterling exchange rate plunged 10% under the condition of other currencies are also affected. Day: the Australian dollar / U.S. dollar down trend. Technical review: RSI technical indicators fell below its 30 location. Above the pressure 0.7580-0.7445, below the support 0.7260-0.7180.

USD / CAD (1.3003, 0.0264, 2.07%) USDCAD

Dollar Canadian dollar Thursday, June 23) European time shock fell, expand the decline to 1.05%, nearly two week lows hit 1.2708; because days stay in Europe is expected to continue to ferment, lead to risk aversion, boosted as currency risk of Canadian dollars; the dollar against the Canadian dollar short-term bearish, or measured 1.27 mark and 1.2653; pay close attention to the latest progress of British referendum. Day: U.S. dollar / Canadian dollar upward trend. Technical reviews: RSI technical indicators, showing a new upward trend. Above the pressure 1.3300-1.3175, below the support 1.2855-1.2675.

USDCHF USDCHF

By the British referendum back in Europe at present is a foregone conclusion, the Swiss Franc hedging products rose sharply. Afternoon, the market focus of coke in the UK today off European referendum news, the Swiss Franc by triggered by the risk factors which affects the expected short-term trend repeatedly by steady. USD / CHF: rising trend in the day. Technical reviews: RSI technical indicators, showing a new upward trend. Above the pressure 0.9900-0.9800, below the support 0.9630-0.9515.

Spot gold GOLD

Today is the first gold disc refresh $1248.60 nearly two week high, then fell to below $1245 consolidation. On Friday may non farm payrolls data due to more than five and a half years in the lowest level, so that the Fed is expected to hike in June dropped to freezing point, sharp fall in the dollar index, gold day sharp rise in more than 2 percent return to above $1240. Tomorrow morning, the market should pay attention to the Fed chairman Yellen speech in Philadelphia, which is the last official meeting before the Fed meeting this month. Day: Gold rising trend. Technical review: RSI technical indicators to break its downward trend line.. Above the pressure 1430.00-1368.00, below the support 1294.00-1250.00.

NYMEX crude oil OIL

Friday (June 24th) Asian market, the price of oil cliff diving after a slight stretch, two oil fell by more than 2%. The British off stage of European referendum tellers, the original off Obi Wan stay in Europe more than 10 million votes, affected by this, oil prices plunged more than 3%, but after the announcement of the results show, Glasgow and Oxford two big cities sided support to stay in Europe, stay in Europe support rate counter ultra, currently studying in Europe votes to 50.3%, oil prices rebounded slightly. Day: crude oil (WTI) (N6) pressure. Technical review: RSI technical indicators were dragged down by its downward trend. Above the pressure 50.56-48.40, below the support 45.90-44.30.

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