British accident does not cut interest rates in the global central bank into a relaxed prisoner

Europe and the United States, Japan and the central bank should continue to loose?

As a matter of fact, the British off Europe only triggering the central bank is expected to further easing of one of the factors, status and long-term low growth and high debt and low productivity, external structural reforms always absence, leading to a global economic recovery is weak, this is the "initiator". At this moment, although monetary policy has excessive pressure, but who are charged with statutory mission of central bankers only along the old road to go.

In addition to the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, said in recent months, may further expand the easing efforts, although not put into action. And for the Fed has entered the interest rate channel, this year's interest rate hike action may also be slowed down.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities chief economist Zhangjun to reporters said, "continued global political and economic risk will be the British off Europe bring the key influence. Morgan Stanley Global team has the Fed rate hike this year, the number of times is expected to drop to zero." In other words, even though the central bank for further easing somewhat hesitant, but long-term low interest rates easing or will become the norm.

In addition, the Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo said in July 11th, to consider the economic stimulus measures taken 10 trillion yen, the government may consider the first issue of new bonds in 4 years.

More noteworthy is that global recently started Hot Japanese central bank or the possibility of "helicopter money", namely the Japanese government issued unlisted perpetual bonds, direct purchases by the Bank of Japan -- for a fiscal stimulus, such as stimulus spending and tax cuts, but the Japanese Central Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda also repeatedly denied the possibility of helicopter money.

However, due to the recent sharp appreciation of the yen, the Japanese central bank does not rule out the second half again overweight loose." China Merchants Securities (Hongkong), vice president of macroeconomic research, Song Lin on the first financial daily reporters.

Turn to Europe, after the currency market is far from the trend implied that the European Central Bank meeting in September will cut deposit rates 10 basis points, to further expand the negative interest rates.

Right now, the situation in Europe is not optimistic, and even came out of the European crisis 2 struck the prophecy. On Thursday, Italy and the European Commission on bank debt restructuring negotiations stalled the news spread, banks' probability of default surged, the market worried about further deepen, the Deutsche Bank shares fell, Italy is the third largest bank in Malaysia accept bank credit default swap (CDS) prices soaring.

Structural reform is the key

In spite of the fact that the global central bank has expressed its loose on many occasions, it may have been reduced to a "verbal easing", because the marginal effects of similar policies are plunging.

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Academician Yu had to accept the "First Financial Daily" the reporter when the interview pointed out that QE short-term can be to stimulate the economic growth of, but in the long run, printing money just for solving structural problems for breathing time. It not only can solve the structural problems, but also for the future of the financial stability of the buried bomb.

"For example, the Fed's balance sheet has expanded dramatically, but the money does not necessarily go into the real economy. One part will flow into the financial market; as a part of the excess reserves to the central bank. Monetary expansion finally into the capital market, not to buy new investment products, but to push up the price of the existing assets. The reason why the Federal Reserve to withdraw from the QE is due to strong growth in wages, fear of inflation, but also worried that the liquidity is too abundant lead to instability in the capital market." He said.

Then in Japan, for example, Song Lin told reporters analysis said that now, a large quantitative and qualitative loose (QQE scale have made the Bank of Japan currently holds about one-third of the Japanese government bonds, the ETF market, to occupy half of the country, and has become the top ten shareholders of the Nikkei 225 index in more than 200 companies. The prices are due to the central bank's purchase behavior is significant for. In the framework of this development will lead to the Japanese economy and the degree of distortion of the financial system continues to increase.

In the years since the financial crisis, the outbreak of the crisis should herald the arrival of the "lever age", which makes the global economy more balanced. However, the long-term low interest rate environment led to a rise in global debt levels, this structural problem makes the global economy more lack of toughness.

According to BIS estimates, as of the end of 2015, the global debt has been equivalent to 235% of the global GDP, the proportion of about 212% before the financial crisis. Debt growth in developing countries is the most extreme, from 121% in 2007 soared to 179% last year. In the context of high debt, the willingness of the private sector to increase investment will also continue to slump, which directly caused the real economic recovery is weak.

"In the financial boom cycle, credit has increased dramatically, and resources tend to move to a more inefficient sector, which has been a drag on productivity growth. When the crisis comes, the financial boom cycle appears to be more difficult to reverse the allocation of resources, its impact may continue to expand, to further combat productivity." Karu Ana told reporters that at the moment, monetary policy has a lack of room for maneuver, structural reforms in all countries without delay. In fact, this is also the main mission of the G20 summit held by China as the chairman of the country this year.