China central bank exchange rate adjustment otherwise IMF

Beijing time on August 17, columnist Marsh (David) MARSH MarketWatch posting said, China suddenly adjustment of exchange rate policy, caused the RMB against the U.S. dollar dramatic devaluation, I am afraid not the rumors of so-called destined to will harm the global market. Effects of adding special drawing rights prospect had no other choice; on the contrary, more likely to come from the people's Bank of China [microblogging] and the International Monetary Fund's cooperation or understanding is gradually let the real freedom of the RMB exchange rate floating plans to a part of, and free floating it is to join the premise of special drawing rights.

The following is the full article marsh:

China last week made an adjustment to the renminbi's exchange rate policy, and the outlook for the next year to join the special drawing right next year has become clear.

Many observers have described the dramatic decline in the Yuan's exchange rate against the dollar last week as a "fall", which believes that this will not only cause damage to the global capital markets, but may also be a direct damage to the currency basket of the International Monetary Fund.

In reality, however, there is also a more plausible possibility, that is, the exchange rate change is a part of Beijing and the international monetary fund jointly planned the overall strategy, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar adjustment but will with the increase of the currency in September 2016 with the possibility of special drawing rights.

For this coordination action, in order to join the special drawing rights arrangements, the other news on Friday seems to provide evidence - the people's Bank of China [microblogging] a month second times the release of gold reserves data show that China's central bank [microblogging]7 months to buy gold 19 tons, making the total gold holdings increased to 1677 tons. A month ago, China has just ended its six year of silence, the announcement of the gold holdings rose by 57% since 2009.

True, many people believe that the official release of the data and China's real gold reserves are probably still not small, but in any case, the Chinese have made a big increase in the transparency of the reserve data, which in itself is the practice of international data released to promote the yuan to become a reserve currency determination.

Following the dollar, euro, pound and yen, fifth kinds of currency, officially become the special drawing rights, it means that the RMB officially joined an elite currency club, will greatly enhance the Beijing in the global level of financial and monetary influence.

Many observers seem to have ignored the crucial point that, if the renminbi is to become a reserve currency, Beijing has no choice but to step by step until it is completely abandoned, even though the latter has been loosened since 2005. Even if the yuan against the dollar fell by 3% last week, but even so, from 2005 to now, the yuan has appreciated by 30% against the dollar.

In fact, fluctuations in exchange rates do not prevent a currency as a reserve currency, but the most common accompaniment to a reserve currency. For example, the original West German Mark into the initial stage of the multi currency reserve system, from 1980 to 1985, the dollar has almost doubled over the Mark, and the next two years, down 50%, the exchange rate of the yen also staged a similar situation.

Another evidence of the coordinated action between Beijing and the International Monetary Fund, the fund is from the international monetary fund. Fund recently released a new report, which shows that in 2014, a total of 38 central banks and monetary authorities to hold the yuan, accounting for the global official assets (more broadly defined as reserve assets) of 1.1%, more than 27 in 2013 and 0.7%.

Of course, this report can not be the most accurate reflection of the holding of the renminbi, because the fund's 188 members are not all accepted the investigation. However, these data are at least for the first time to be listed as the world's seventh most important official assets, after the u.. Survey data also show that the central bank holds $109, 127 holding a pound, 108 holding the euro, 88 holding the yen.

Over the past 12 months, according to the adjusted for inflation of RMB trade weighted value full increase of 14%, and now, no longer gaze at the strong dollar will obviously greatly ease the pressure on Chinese exporters. China's official last week explained that the adjustment is only a one-time measures, not the RMB against the United States and other major economies of the currency devaluation, a prelude to a currency war. Taking into account that China is trying to shape the image of "good citizens" in the international monetary area, their sincerity should be credible.