The central bank to adjust the price mechanism is to save

Yesterday, the RMB against the U.S. dollar (6.4230, 0.0982, 1.55%) in the middle of a stable trend, there has been a 6.2298 devaluation, 1.86%, directly back to the level of May 2013, its roots is the Chinese people's Bank [microblogging] released the same day, the market maker in the daily interbank foreign exchange market opening, the exchange rate of foreign exchange market, the integrated consideration of foreign exchange supply and demand and the international exchange rate changes to the Chinese foreign exchange trading center offers an intermediate price quote." The middle price depreciation is due to the market maker reference on the day of the closing exchange rate quotation, past middle price and the market exchange rate spreads are disposable correction.

In my opinion, the central bank [microblogging] to select the current point in time for the central parity pricing mechanism reform, mainly of domestic and foreign macroeconomic and financial asset price movements of the rainy day, the U.S. economy continues to recover, fed years interest rates almost no suspense, leading to the dollar continues to go strong expectations, the euro and the yen weakening, emerging economies and commodity producing countries currency devaluation. Therefore, the actual effective exchange rate of RMB in the second half of 2015 has exceeded the risk of excessive appreciation of the fundamental plane of the real economy and trade. In other words, the RMB overall does not need to depreciate, but integrated, the actual value of the currency is clearly not conducive to the stability of exports.

From the strategic level, the central bank made it clear that the central parity price quotation is in order to integrate with the market rate, promote exchange rate market reform, to help the RMB into the SDR, and strengthen the RMB internationalization process is expected to steadily push forward. Over the past month, stable in the Bank of the renminbi against the dollar, but NDF offshore 12 months appear currency fluctuations, reflect the international financial market, the RMB against the dollar is expected to be enhanced, the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism is homeopathy.

With China's financial market, the interest rate market reform, the inter-bank bond market liquidity ample, bond yield curve smoothing, interest rate term structure is stable, the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate of 5%, or even 10% of the volatility, it should be the main system of banking institutions are prepared, will not lead to financial systemic risk.

In economic sense, developing countries in the international major reserve currency exchange rate depreciation, will increase their capital outflow pressure. Modern international capital flow management is a dynamic process, China's huge foreign exchange reserves and the reserve ratio is still high, but also make the central bank has the ability to hedge funds out of the short term does not exist the systemic financial risks of asset price linkage effect.

The difference between the Chinese and American monetary policy cycle, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar superimposed on the U.S. exchange rate, after all, the domestic economy and financial stability is a negative factor. Is worth looking forward to the exchange rate adjustment mechanism of a new era of institutions and personal asset allocation specialized new challenges, "big cycle" macro investment fund, in contrast, global financial asset allocation era has come.

Exchange rate adjustment in short-term impact on the domestic capital market, mainly in terms of capital outflows, the short-term impact of the shares may be negative, in August 11th, the stock exchange rate fell or the response; but in the long term, exchange rate adjustment on the impact of domestic bonds and stock prices, still need to continue to observe the actual volatility and magnitude.